Saving Nigeria: Are Nigerians Ready?

 By Written by Taofeek Ramat

 I once wrote on my blog encouraging true patriots of Nigeria, not to weep for Nigeria, their country, and indeed Nigerians at the lower rung of the society, who are bearing the brunt of all the ills that have befallen the potentially great country. That Giant of Africa that has become a symbol of how-not-to-be-a-giant.

That conclusion I reached emanated from my understanding of the difficulty of getting an oppressed people to free themselves from the shackles of those holding them hostage. For as we have come to know – the unearned suffering has now become fashionable to the sufferers! And it is all part of the bargain and plan of the oppressors. Not that I do not believe that Nigeria and indeed Nigerians can be saved, far from it. I do believe that Nigeria and Nigerians can be saved, but this is not going to be a child’s play. It is going to be a journey far longer and frustrating than the biblical wilderness voyage of the Israelites. The adventure of salvaging Nigeria and saving Nigerians is going to be more tortuous than the struggle for economic development, not just growth in GDP as we have seen in much of the Latin America, Southeast Asia or indeed the rest of the world that have raised far more than half of their population from poverty and instituted a more lasting egalitarian economy. And these successful economies, I should remind you, are not based on the template promoted by Bretton Woods’ institutions of World Bank, IMF or WTO.

What for me has been a constant encouragement, particularly of late, is the fact that stories of people and countries attaining true libration abound, from Brazil to Singapore, from Norway to Finland. And when I say economic and political liberation, I am not talking about that overhyped and falling apart glory of greatness of America or Britain, but truly advanced societies that understand the need to pull everyone up and developing their society not by plundering and destabilizing others. But again, more concerns remain based on the peculiarities of Nigeria, just like the rest of Africa or indeed the third world that have perpetually been held down to remain as museums of underdevelopment. And this too is part of the bargain and plan!

Talking of the concerns, let’s dwell a bit on this. You would have realized that in the history of political and economic struggles across the world, there have always been the true champions of the people and the ponies working for their masters, those within and without their borders. Let’s keep a tab on the differences of the two opposing camps. The true champions are mainly to the left of the political spectrum. These are the unapologetic liberals who believe in and work for the good of the majority. And we have the supposed ponies – those to the right. And you know, most of these slaves, the house niggers, the armies of turncoats, nitwit and halfwit foot soldiers and bootlickers never consider it that they are ruining their lives while they mortgaged their people and society. The lessons in collective liberation and development that guarantees the wellbeing of individual never sink into their skulls or minds. These lots who are Judases consider the crumbs reaching them as the sweetest they can get and, the fleeting allure they revel in, the highest it can ever get. Even the man Fridays among them always feel they have some powers – a sheer illusion. And please be wary of the accidental progressives or those unrepentant capitalist adorning the toga of socialist democrats. There are many who are looking for where their bread can be buttered. And of course, the late converts into the progressive gospels, including OBJ – whose endless gallivanting around the world is just a desperate attempt to keep intact until death a stinking integrity threatening to explode.

Let’s take the discussion further. You know the identities of the ponies have been changing over time. In the pre-independence era of Nigeria, they were just some sets of foolish political opportunists, who happen to chance on power or authority as per their time, either as clerks or as would be civil servants or political representatives taking over from the marauding British. For a better understanding of the distinctions between the two camps at the struggle for the soul of Nigeria during the period just before independence, please take time to read the ‘early intimations’ chapter of Wole Soyinka’s memoir – You must set forth at dawn. Page 42 and 43 of the book should be of interest for those hoping to take back their country. And the changing identities get a bit musty under the military regimes; I do not want to get any further there. And you must also know that the ranks of those holding Nigeria by the jugular, those mortgaging their nation and people for a piece of the pie have swelled so much over the years.

Now in this era, with the birthing of a kind of democracy, since 1999, we now have a more elitists, well read, well travelled and eloquent ponies. And the sad part of the story – these lots despite their education, global travels and experience continue to sell to the government and people of Nigeria alchemy in the name of programmes and policies which will never lead to a collective liberation and development – socially, economically or politically. These lots are expert in turning logic on its head. They can rationalize anything. They are adept in making good speeches, mesmerizing their audiences while those who are not so vocal throw around their internationalness from their certificates, to education and those global positions they have held in time past.

And majority of Nigerians continue to believe them. So saddening! I wish Nigerians will not just moan about the many brilliant on paper but failed programmes that they have shoved down our throats, particularly since 1999, but will get to understand these tricks as part of the plan and bargain to perpetually keep them poor while their nation remain museum of underdevelopment. Nigerians should know that the likes of Magnus Kpakol understand full well that poverty can never be alleviated through the NAPEP. Charles Soludo and Sanusi Lamido Sanusi know that millions of banking reforms as they are implementing them will never liberate the economy for the poor. Nigerians should know that Okonjo Iweala knows full well that seeking debt relief for Nigerians by agreeing to pay $12.4bn of debt no one can point to where such monies were spent and was spent for, and dolling out at-a-go in once tranche $4.6bn; an equivalent of N736bn naira cannot improve the Nigerian economy, nor the lots of poor Nigerians. Nigerians should remember that way back in 2006 after our monies were given away, we were promised that our economy will grow, the government can focus more on infrastructure development. Where is the growth and where are the infrastructures? What is obvious six years down the line is that the ranks of the poor have swelled going by the Nigerian government official statistics.

 

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POVERTY IN NIGERIA

 

Extreme poverty is a more serious problem for the world than climate change, terrorism or the state of the economy (BBC world service global poll 2010).

Poverty is a naked reality that can be asserted objectively and fell-subjectively. It is oldest and yet unresolved social problem (Bradshow, 2006). Historically speaking, the problems of poverty started with the early formation of human society. Societies of the past and present are either satisfied between the slaves and owners, feudal lords and serfs, or the capitalists and the working class between the “haves” and the “have nots” or “rich” and “poor”. The opportuned, privileged, educated and sheltered the healthier and secured social group, while the “poor” are the opposite deprived, depressed and diseased. (Haralambos, 2004).

Worldwide, the number of people living in extreme poverty in 2009 in expected to be from 55millon to 90million higher than anticipated before the global economic crisis, though the impact will vary across regions and countries. Current projections suggest that overall poverty rates in the developing countries will still fall in 2002, but at a much more slower pace than before the downturn. For some countries, this may mean reaching their poverty reduction target. In sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, both the number of poor and the poverty rate are expected to increase further in some of the more vulnerable and low-growth economics (MDGs report 2009).

The report also observed that prior to the economic crisis and higher food prices, the number of people in the developing regions living in extreme poverty – on less than $1.25 a day in 1990 will increase to 1.4 million in 2005. As a result, those considered extremely poor accounted for slightly more than a quarter of the developing world’s population in 2005, compared to almost half in 1990.

There was a dramatic fall in the poverty rate in Eastern Asia – thanks, in large part to rapid economic growth in China, which helped lift 474 million people from extreme poverty. Elsewhere, progress has been slower and, in some regions growing population have caused the ranks of the destitute. To swell. Sub-Saharan Africa counted 100million more extreme poor people in 2005 than in 1990. And the poverty rate remained above 50 percent (though it had began to decline after 1999). Globally, the target of reducing the poverty rate by half by 2015 seems likely to be achieved. However, some regions will fall far short, and as many as 1million people are likely to remain in extreme poverty by the target date.

According to the World Bank (2008), the developing world is poor than we thought, but no less successful in the fight against poverty. Shaohua c, (2008) argues that 95 percent of developing world’s population lived on less than $10 a day. Using 2005 population numbers this is equivalent to just under 79.7 percent of world population and does not include population living on less than $10 a day from industrialized countries.

With the population estimated at about 140 million, Nigeria is the largest country in Africa and one-sixth of the black population in the world. It is the 8^th largest deposit of natural gas in the world. There are also abundant solid mineral deposits that remained largely untapped. Currently, barely 40percent of its arable land is under cultivation with over 100 tertiary institutions producing more than 200,000 graduates per annum (soludo, 2006). Starting as it may be, about two-thirds of Nigerian people are poor, yet Nigeria is a country with vast potential wealth. Although revenues, from crude oil have been increasing over the past decades, our people have been falling deeper into poverty (chukwuemeka, 2009).

As far back as 1980, an estimated 27 percent of Nigerians lived in poverty. By 1999 about 70 percent of the population had income of less than S1 a day and the figure has risen since then (NEEDS, 2005). Poverty levels vary across the country, with the highest proportion of poor people in the North-west and North-east as 77.7 percent and 76.3 percent respectively. And the South–west recorded the lowest. With 59.1 percent. Sokoto had the highest at 81.2 percent, while Niger had the lowest at 33.8 percent during the review period (Kunle, 2010). The classical example to underscore the scope of misfortune is to compare Nigeria with Indonesia and even Malaysia. By 1972 before Nigeria and Indonesia had the first oil boom contends, both countries were comparable in almost all spheres: agrarian societies, multi–ethnic and religious societies, with comparable size of GDP, etc (chukwuemeka, 2009). In the same vein, both Nigeria and Indonesia experienced oil boom in 1973 and thereafter, took different policy choices. The outcomes of the differences in policy, regimes are such much that today, while manufactures as percentage of total exports is about 40 percent in Indonesia, it is less than 1 percent in Nigeria where we were in 1970s. It will be recalled that even Malaysia that has overtaken Nigeria got her first palm seedlings from Nigeria in the early 1960s, when oil palm produce was already a major export of Nigeria. In the 1990s. It was said that Malaysia’s export of palm oil produce earned it more than Nigeria earned oil exports (soludo, 2006).     

Nigeria emerged from colonial states as a poor country. Her situation is weakened by poverty, disease and ignorance. Poverty in Nigeria is multi–selected, multi–dimensional and multi–disciplinary. The Nigerian economy until recently has been characterized by the paradox of growth without poverty reduction and the tickle down effect of growth or the poor, slow response of government to the endemic and persistent of poverty and poor governance.

Poverty as far as the Nigerian society is concerned, is an endemic disease that has refused to respond positively to all prescriptions and treatments offered by “economic and political surgeons” since independence. We also observed in the face of these numerous policies, strategies and programmers put in place with the major aim of alleviating poverty in the country that, the gap between the rich and the power is widening, giving rise to chronic hunger, per capita income dwindling, unemployment condition worsening, inflation rate skyrocketing and the general socio-economic welfare of the majority deteriorating on daily basis (Goshit, 2004).         

The fight against poverty has been a central plank of development planning since independence in 1960 and about fifteen ministries, fourteen specialized agencies, and nineteen donor agencies, and non-governmental organizations have been involved in the decades of this crusade but about 70 percent of Nigerians still live in poverty (soludo, 2003:27). Observers have unanimously agreed that successive government interventions have failed to achieved the objectives for which they were established (Ovwasa, 2000: 73; Adesopo, 2008: 219 – 222; Omotola, 2008: 505 – 512). The failure to effectively combat the problem has largely been blamed on infrastructural decay, endemic corruption, and poor governance and accountability (Okonjo – Iweala, Soludo and Mukhtar, 2003:1).

 

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2015: The Naked Dancers and the Two-Year Marathon

 

I got this from mallam Nasir El-rufa’I website, mallam rise some questions in this piece that need answers from our so-called leaders and Nigerians as whole, because the evil of PDP has affect me, you and even lay men on street selling sugar cane and market women. Enjoy!

In a functional democracy, the arguments and divisions currently wracking the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) would be seen as a sign of the healthy debates and disagreements that are critical to democratic progression and the constant alignments and re-alignments that are permanent features of the electoral process.

But Nigerians now know better because the people currently in control of the PDP have no altruistic guiding principles and ideology to shape the party and promote good governance. The PDP’s top brass: President – Goodluck Jonathan, former president and BoT chairman – Olusegun Obasanjo, National Chairman – Bamanga Tukur, former and new BoT Chairman – Tony Anenih, Chairman of the Nigerian Governors Forum – Rotimi Amaechi and a number of Governors have been engaged in a naked dance that amounts to exhibition of little more than raw and unbridled ambition.

At the root of the argument is not about which approach to adopt to tackle the enormous challenges confronting Nigeria. No one is talking about how to address the problem of our 20 million youth who have no jobs and are losing hope, or how to improve our collective security. None of the naked dancers is interested in seeking solutions to the problems of growing poverty, de-industrialization, deteriorating infrastructure, rising inequality, falling standards of education or decaying healthcare. None of the combatants in the PDP’s disagreements is concerned with tackling Nigeria’s mind-boggling corruption, impunity or even how to prepare for the day when our oil revenues will dry up. The one and only thing on the minds of these PDP apparatchiks is personal ambition, the pursuit of power and the senseless looting and primitive accumulation associated therewith.

In essence, what should be a public debate between and among the ruling party members to chart the path of progress for the country it has ruled since 1999 and has promised to govern for at least 60 years has been reduced to a voluble public fight about who gets what, where, how, and knowing the PDP for what it has become, how much! Eventually, because the fight is not predicated on any ideological or principled stand, whether by the instrument of the EFCC or the sheer need to remain on the corridors of power, all the gladiators will fall back in line at the right moment in order for the party to continue its nuclear war on the Nigerian people.

A year or two ago, it would have gotten away with it, too. Except that things are beginning to change, and a two-year marathon that would determine the future of Nigeria’s 170 million people is beginning to take shape and form: From mysterious campaign posters appearing overnight, PDP governors that have gone missing for months, trillions of stolen fuel subsidy and pension funds, unneeded and unsolicited 10 million cell phones for farmers, the first lady’s death and resurrection, endless political intrigues, revelations and long knives within the PDP – up to the emergence of a new opposition political party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), the tone for the 2015 elections seem to be taking shape.

Now, the issue is: what does the current situation and evolving developments entail, and what are their possible implications for the 2015 general elections, if we ever get there? Does the current discord within the ruling party signal the beginning of the end of its existence? Will the formation of the APC which is the merger of the four major opposition parties – ACN, CPC, ANPP and parts of APGA, signify the emergence of a ‘new’ and better Nigeria for the over 125 million Nigerians below the age of 35? Will the new party, APC survive its teething challenges and emerge with a manifesto and truly representative yet formidable candidates that will sweep away majority votes at the poles?

As all parties gear up towards 2015, we need to ask: Is President Jonathan capable of participating in the election without deliberately dividing the country along ethnic and religious lines for his short-term political gain? Is INEC willing, able and capable of delivering free, fair and credible elections in 2015? Can we trust INEC not to be what the opposition perceives it to be – a mere tool and toothless subsidiary of the PDP? How do we as individuals and stakeholders contribute our quota to ensure that we do not remain pawns in the hands of selfish politicians? Can we see through the antics of the false prophets who promised fresh air and transformation, only to lead us to the path of division and destitution?

There is no gainsaying that the PDP is in turmoil and chaos at the moment. On the surface, it began in January with the call by PDP governors for the sack of the party chairman – Bamanga Tukur due to the latter’s interference in the Adamawa PDP politics. This was followed by the move against Obasanjo’s henchmen in the party which led to the sack of its National Auditor Chief Bode Mustapha and his replacement by Alhaji Fatai Adewole Adeyanju while National Vice Chairman, South West, Segun Oni and National Secretary Oyinlola, were somehow also removed.

Following the above, the PDP set up its own Governor’s Forum with Governor Godswill Akpabio of Akwa Ibom emerging as chairman in an attempt to polarize the already existing Nigeria Governor’s Forum which has the ‘stubborn’ Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers state as chair. As stated, the whole saga is indicative of PDP’s desperation to hang on to power and not allow democracy take its course. It has been alleged that this new forum was set-up to trim down the influence of Amaechi who is seen as too independent and non-conformist for the current PDP leadership. Those who know the PDP well will tell you that the quarrels can easily be resolved as soon as some of the excess crude, the looted fuel subsidy and pension funds are released and redistributed – and the gravy train that is the PDP will begin to roll again. But that is another matter for another day.

For now, the newly formed APC seems to have a grasp of what they are doing. Just a week ago, the opposition governors in the APC made a bold statement by holding the party’s third meeting in Maiduguri – the capital and base of the Boko-Haram insurgency. They also donated N200m to victims of the crisis. So far, the current government has neither been able to curb the insurgency nor has it set up a relief fund for victims of the menace. It would be recalled that President Goodluck Jonathan, once said he could not visit Maiduguri because the ‘airport was not in good shape’ and just about a month before was ‘too busy’ to visit and sent his deputy, Namadi Sambo. The APC governors have now shamed Jonathan to visit Maiduguri and recognize Borno as one of the 36 states of Nigeria!

The emergence of the APC, apparent crumbling of the ruling PDP alongside the deregistering of political parties by INEC appears to be gradually paving way for a pan-Nigerian opposition platform capable of ending the PDP’s hegemony. Although the two-party system may have its disadvantages, it would be advantageous for Nigeria by providing a sturdy check and balance as well as choice for Nigerians. It will also reduce the clutter and confusion created by numerous existing ‘briefcase’ parties which possess no clout. In fact, some political economists believe that the two parry system leads to political stability and in turn, economic growth.

In spite of the positive direction we are headed with the merger of the major opposition parties, the APC on its part has its work cut out for it to stand as a stronghold in the 2015 elections. It has to ensure that we do not eventually become another failed merger bereft of individuals who truly have the interest of the nation at heart. Individual ambitions have so far been shelved in favor of truly democratic ideals, and this is encouraging. As APC, we must reach out to the populace at the grassroots and earn their confidence rather than appease the ‘godfathers’ to ensure political advantage. It is gratifying that the inter-party merger teams led by Chief Tom Ikimi have focused on these true democratic principles in shaping the APC’s birth.
As everything is being set in place for the elections in 2015, the only way more bloodshed would be averted is by ensuring free and fair elections. This is the only way to save our nation and its democracy. Looting in advance of 2015 to buy up votes, militarization and deployment of coercive instruments will not work but only lead to open confrontation and violence. The electorate must be encouraged to vote by providing a safe and serene atmosphere devoid of any intimidation for voting to take place. If neighboring Ghana has been able to conduct several successive peaceful, free and fair elections, then we have no reason not to better that record, given our vast human and material resources.

It is time for our elites to rise to the challenge and actively engage in the political activities, and encourage the involvement of all citizens in the electoral process, knowing that sovereignty lies with them. It is time for our professionals and Diaspora to move from being armchair or online critics to work towards informing the broader electorate that it is only when we elect people with proven track records of excellence, hard work and integrity that we can truly move forward as a nation. Nigerians must understand that voting on the basis of tribe or religion has never, and will not lead to the emergence of the Nigeria of our dreams. Those that voted for Jonathan for these reasons can see the unintended consequences of their decision.

As we watch the PDP’s naked dancers strut their raw ambitions in public, Nigerians need to appreciate the power of their vote and do all they can to guard it jealously. Knowing that the PDP will do everything under the sun to remain in power at all costs despite growing deteriorating infrastructure, insecurity, poverty and unemployment in Nigeria, it is clear that we must all play active roles in what may be a tough two-year marathon towards 2015. Eventually, it is the power of our vote – how wisely we use it – and the deterrent structures to ensure PDP and its partners do not write and declare fictitious election results, that will free us from the current regime of corruption, impunity and incompetence.

 

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MY FEAR AND HOPE FOR APC!

The prophecy of chief Vicent Ogbulafor, PDP’s former chairman that the PDP would rule for the next 60 years without break is almost coming to an end. For 14 years of corruption, insecurity, and unequal distribution of Nigerian resources by PDP’s administration has push Nigerian youth into precarious condition with unemployment and hunger, to the extent that some youth have to show there grievance during the post-election violence and the aftermath of fuel subsidy removal. The Supreme Court has endorsed President Goodluck Jonathan to re-contest in coming 2015, upon the litigation that happens after April 2011 general elections filed by CPC on view that, the election was not free and fair. Where is the judicial independent?

The All Progressive Congress (APC) is the merger of four Nigerian political parties; the parties are Action Congress (AC), the All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP), All Progressive Change (CPC) and the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA). The merger was built on objectives principles and idealist manifesto to combat and overthrow the ruling party in 2015, even due the APC is awaiting the INEC approval and registration but it has imposed head ache on PDP governing bodies and the presidency to the extent that, the initiate another party with same acromion as APC, so that the merger APC will be denied register by INEC. As an advocate of change, I fear some certain constraint to APC on their holistic approach to overthrow the incumbent government in 2015.

As we are aware of internal party factions in the four merger parties, before they were merger together as APC. Even today within the four merged parties none of them is without internal problems and factions, the APGA, especially is like scene of a horror movie where every leader is gunning for each other’s jugular. The CPC is even worse as it has two factions. One led by Senator Rufai Hanga and other by Gen. muh’d Buhari. Even due senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu has done to reconcile both parties but his effort prove abortive. The ANPP has bred more of political prostitutes than any other party in Nigeria and is therefore a spy house for most other parties as Mr. Ben Nanaghan observed, the ANPP is like a transit camp for Nigeria’s political parties. It is a divided house that does not have concrete political force that can propel it to the tenets of genuine Democracy, as Dr. Muhmud Lawal of Political Science Department BUK assert that `by virtue of what political party really means, we have no single political party in Nigeria’.

This depict that all political parties have their own peculiar problems but for such political parties go into alliance with other political parties, with this problem, I doubt their capacity to compete with PDP, but if the merger will resolve home matters, hence will be able to win nation electoral votes. There is also a personality clash between the core leader of ANPP in person Mal. Ibrahim Shekarau and Gen. Muhammed Buhari which arose from the stands of an opposition between the CPC and ANPP in April Pols 2011. This tense clashes has penetrate in the soul and mined of parties members and fans of the both personality which will be difficult for them to forgive and forget, this could affect the strength of APC at home because for instance kano state is one of  the core states for CPC, where Buhari the CPC leader is very influential. It is also an ANPP domain; therefore the APC leaders need to burry the matches so that respect and love will wipe away agony and pain of the past among the fans of Buhari and shekarau.

The struggle among flag bearers within the party’s member of APC is another fear; I have for the party because looking at Nigeria as whole and APC members, it covered the six geo-political zone of Nigeria. The perfect match to bearer APC for presidential ticket is Buhari and Fashola but as politics is game of number, has to do with some calculations. In this combination are Muslim tickets only, what about our Christian brothers and their vote? I guess Rochas, Bakare or Oshumule can suit the running. As youth comprised of almost half of Nigerian population, it will be nice if the old hand will step down for youth like Elrufa’I or Ribadu for presidency! I urge the governing body of APC for prudent selection of their flag bearer for coming 2015 that will suit the interest of the whole Nigeria

Northern leaders need to woke up from there slumber and support home base political party for positive change and the poor masses should devoid from selling their vote, #50 per vote or a single pack of indomie or salt as witness in  kano state. It will be nice if INEC and federal government will just accept two party systems as in USA, Britain and Nigeria in third republic, it will reduce cost and time.

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